09 Apr WILL YOU TAKE THE RISK OF A PRISON ESCAPE?

As a former accountant, sales manager, economics instructor, and someone who spent many years calling on large financial institutions and major corporations in the anti-money laundering field, I have always been fascinated by the concept of risk. Risk may be defined as the measured avoidance of negative consequences of an action. Whether it’s losing money on a financial transaction, loaning money, or jumping out of an airplane, risk is an inherent part of our lives.

Risk assessment is a fundamental part of our decision-making process, often done unconsciously. We first learn about risk, at a young age, when deciding whether to swim in deep water. If the potential reward exceeds the negative consequences, we usually take the risk. As we grow older, we assess risk in various decisions: who to date, what car to buy, whether we can afford a house, and if a job is the best fit. Recently, many of us evaluated the risks of vaccination and wearing protective masks during the Covid pandemic.

How much risk will you take to succeed in your career and life? Some people are highly risk-averse and take minimal risks, while others are eager to take risks for personal enjoyment or business reasons. In my award-winning book “Above Quota Sales Management,” I discuss how different personalities deal with risk, primarily how the sixteen Myers-Briggs personality types (MBTI) handle risk in a sales situation.

We also make decisions based on risk when we decide where to invest our savings. Risk-averse individuals will place their savings in bank Certificates of Deposits or U.S. Treasury Bonds. Those willing to take more risks will buy cryptocurrency, emerging market stocks, high-yield bonds, trade options, and foreign currencies.

What percentage of risk success would one need to attempt an escape from a prison? Here is a scenario I’ve been contemplating to demonstrate risk tolerance.

Imagine being jailed in a prison with an opportunity to escape. You estimate your chances of success at 20-25%, but it’s possible. Currently serving a 10-year sentence with about four years left, you face an additional five to ten years if caught. Would you attempt to escape? It demonstrates a situation where one could determine the probability of success and whether to take the risk.

This situation illustrates how one might assess the probability of success and decide whether to take the risk.

The potential positive outcome is undoubtedly appealing. Most of us wouldn’t want to remain imprisoned for another four years. But is the probability of success high enough to justify the risk? I need at least a 90% chance, or better, of success before risking an additional five to ten years in federal prison.

I would also consider the measures needed to avoid recapture. Where would I go? I would need to hide and change my identity. Contacting family, relatives, and friends would be out of the question, as their phones would likely be monitored. Where would I work, and what would I do? I couldn’t use any of my past workplaces for references. How would I explain the past six years? Would I need to relocate to a foreign country? I would constantly be alert, looking over my shoulder and seeing others suspiciously.

What about the current conditions of my imprisonment? I’ve learned to tolerate them. After a horrific beginning, I’ve settled into an acceptable daily routine. I get along with most (but not all) other inmates and correctional officers. The food isn’t gourmet, but it’s edible. It’s not torture; I could endure this for another four years.

What about the escape? Would I need to hurt someone – a guard or another prisoner? That is a consideration, as I do not want that to occur.  Would other inmates want to join me? If so, what shall I do, as they could lower my probability of success?

What about clothing? Without someone on the outside who would meet me with a change of clothes or access to a clothing store, I could easily be identified as an (escaped) inmate.

Transportation? I could hitchhike if I had a change of clothes, but the prison would alert local law enforcement as soon as they realized I was missing. They would use their relentless tracking hounds.

I stated that I want to have at least a 90 percent chance of success before attempting to escape from prison.  Since I estimated the chances of success at 20-25%, I am going to stay put and finish my prison sentence.

I may have watched too many unrealistic prison escape television shows and movies.

What do you think?